Covariate Selection for Mortgage Default Analysis Using Survival Models

Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis

We introduce the powerful, flexible and efficient nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to the analysis of mortgage default data while conducting the first academic study of mortgage default in Israel. CART’s strengths in dealing with large data sets, high dimensionality, mixed data types, missing data, different relationships between variables in different parts of...

Residential Mortgage Default

although default rates on residential mortgages have been relatively low in recent years, policymakers and economists should still be concerned about mortgage default for several reasons. First, while the foreclosure rate in the u.s. has averaged only 1 percent over the past 20 years, there have been dramatic swings in regional default rates over this period. For example, in the early 1990s for...

Residential Mortgage Probability of Default Models and Methods

Assessment of Mortgage Default Risk via Bayesian State Space Models

Managing risk at the aggregate level is crucial for banks and financial institutions as required by the Basel III framework. In this paper, we introduce discrete time Bayesian state space models with Poisson measurements to model aggregate mortgage default rate. We discuss parameter updating, filtering, smoothing, forecasting and estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In addition, w...

analysis of ruin probability for insurance companies using markov chain

در این پایان نامه نشان داده ایم که چگونه می توان مدل ریسک بیمه ای اسپیرر اندرسون را به کمک زنجیره های مارکوف تعریف کرد. سپس به کمک روش های آنالیز ماتریسی احتمال برشکستگی ، میزان مازاد در هنگام برشکستگی و میزان کسری بودجه در زمان وقوع برشکستگی را محاسبه کرده ایم. هدف ما در این پایان نامه بسیار محاسباتی و کاربردی تر از روش های است که در گذشته برای محاسبه این احتمال ارائه شده است. در ابتدا ما نشا...